"GHOST WHISPERER" WILL BE A SURPRISE HIT

"GHOST WHISPERER" stars (Left to Right) JENNIFER LOVE HEWITT, DAVID CONRAD and (sitting) AISHA TYLER.

Media buyers have panned CBS’ new fall drama Ghost Whisperer as a show destined to fail, but if you listen to the buzz and sentiment expressed by average TV viewers on the Internet, the show has a strong chance of getting solid audience levels and succeeding.

Other new prime-time network shows that received low marks from media agencies and TV critics—from NBC’s Surface and CBS’ Threshold to Fox’s Bones and Kitchen Confidential—are all being talked up positively online among potential viewers, according to the 2005 TV Trends survey produced by Trendum. The New York-based company creates trend reports based on its monitoring of daily Web conversations about television, movies and celebrities that take place on message boards, bulletins, online communities and in-digital media.

Trendum, started in 2000, became a business affiliate of Mediaweek parent VNU earlier this year. In its 2004 TV Trends survey, Trendum predicted, based on the unsolicited Internet conversations it monitored, that new ABC drama Lost would be a breakout hit, an opinion not shared by most media agencies and TV critics going into last season. Trendum also predicted the runaway success of ABC’s Desperate Housewives last season when other media observers hedged their bets on the show.

Not everything Trendum forecast to succeed was indeed a hit. For example, NBC’s Joey was picked as the show with the biggest buzz last season. And while Joey is returning this fall, it was far from a hit last year. (Talked about doesn’t necessarily mean successful, it seems.)

For its 2005 TV Trends, Trendum software looked at 14 million unsolicited messages on the Internet from 360,000 viewers and found 2,600 messages from 2,000 viewers that talked about new TV shows. Its monitoring period for the survey ran from April through July 2005.

From a buzz standpoint—the volume of online discussion about a given show—NBC’s The Apprentice: Martha Stewart received the most, followed by Fox’s Prison Break, The WB’s Supernatural, Fox’s Bones and ABC’s Invasion. Other shows garnering lots of buzz were CBS’ Threshold, NBC’s Surface and another surprise, ABC’s Freddie.

Ghost Whisper ranked first among viewer sentiment—positive, negative or neutral opinions of the online chatter—followed by Supernatural, UPN’s Everybody Hates Chris, CBS’ How I Met Your Mother and Prison Break.

Factoring in both buzz and sentiment, Supernatural came out on top as the show with the best chance of success, followed by Prison Break, The Apprentice: Martha Stewart, Ghost Whisperer and Fox’s Reunion.

Trendum president Rich Nelson said the track record of his company’s surveys is solid. For example, in fall 2003 when Fox was heavily promoting its new drama Skin during World Series telecasts, Trendum monitoring showed that viewer sentiment was extremely negative. Skin was cancelled after three episodes due to poor ratings.

In addition to monitoring conversations about the shows themselves, Trendum also monitors comments about the characters on the shows and conducts customized reports for media agencies and networks. Among its clients are several broadcast and cable networks and some media agencies.